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The US Dollar has devalued significantly against all the major currencies, why is this and how far will it go?

The US dollar has shown a straight line decline in value, the reason is not hard to identify, it is the huge US trade deficit, which is approaching $2bn a day or 6% of US output. This can~t go on forever. What are the options?

Political Action If another economy were to take over the mantle as the world engine for growth then US exports would grow, this would reduce the trade deficit and reduce the need for the US dollar to drop in value. The only economy able to do this would be Euroland, but this would require a significant monetary stimulation from the European central bank via tax cuts or increased Public spending. This is considered unlikely due to the European Central Banks strong anti inflationary stance. Washington has been pushing Europe to deliver economic reform and growth, but to little effect.

Increasing The Propensity to Save Washington could implement measures that would encourage Americans to save. Economists have calculated that it would require US consumption to be reduced by a sixth to reduce the demand for Imports. If This was achieved it would lead to a severe recession.

US Government Action The US Government could choke off US consumption by raising US taxes and cutting public spending. The fact is that nobody who matters in Washington is worried about the twin deficits. President Bush is likely to introduce new tax cuts and US spending in Iraq is not likely to reduce US Government spending. Europe is incapable or unwilling to accept some responsibility for sustaining world economic growth, the only way available for the US to get its Trade Deficit under control is to allow the Dollar to devalue against other currencies, making exports more competitive and US imports less competitive.

The US Government Wants Wants a Weaker Dollar Mr Greenspan has indicated that the Federal reserve had no intention of propping up the dollar. He even stamped on comments suggesting that central banks should step in a support the dollar.

A week dollar is not a domestic problem in the US as president Bush got re-elected after seeing the dollar lose 20% of its value during his first term.

A strong dollar is of greater concern to Asian Central Bankers as they have been recycling their trade surpluses into US Treasury Bonds. This has been done without looking at the economic risk of loss in value.

Asian Central bankers have started to realise that they have significant exposure to a devaluation in the dollar are trying to reallocate reserves into Euros.

This will lead to a controlled devaluation of the dollar.

How far will the Dollar Drop? The dollar reached its all time low against the Deutsmarck in march 1995 when the exchange rate was $1.3445 to the DEM. This was when the trade deficit was significantly lower than it currently is. This would equate to a rate of $2.10 against sterling. There is still a strong risk that the US will have to protect its currency with an interest rate Rise.

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